Obrabotka Metallov 2013 No. 2

ОБРАБОТКА МЕТАЛЛОВ № 2 (59) 2013 38 ОБОРУДОВАНИЕ. ИНСТРУМЕНТЫ Reliability prediction of quality process equipment Ptitsyn S.V., SkeebaV.Yu., ChesovYu.S., Merezhko E.V. Novosibirsk State Technical University, Karl Marx avenue, 20, Novosibirsk, 630073, Russian Federation Abstract The problem prognostics of quality at conceptual designing of the process equipment is considered. The founda- tions of methods of prediction the distribution of performance parameters of general purpose machine tools are stated. To select the optimum values of the basic technical characteristics of the machinery it is proposed to use extreme local maxima of the second derivatives of basic functions. The reliability is used to assess of the quality prediction, and is determined by the implementation of relevant assessments with the lowest range of uncertainty in the chosen value of the probability. The effect of the uncertainty of initial operating parameters for reliability prediction tools is studied by the methods of statistical modeling. Rational scope of the proposed method depend- ing on the degree of universality of process equipment is stated. Practical recommendations to ensure the reliabil- ity of the forecast of the basic characteristics of metal-cutting machine tools are given. Keywords: prediction, quality, statistical modeling, processing equipment. References 1. Lisichkin V.A. Teorija i praktika prognostiki (Theory and practice of prognostication). Moskow: Nauka, 1972. 224 p. 2. L’vov D.S. Ekonomika kachestva produktsii (Economics of product quality). Moskow: Ekonomika, 1972. 255 p. 3. Ptitsyn S.V., Chesov Yu.S. STIN , 2002, no. 6, pp.19-23. 4. Ostromenskij P.I. Matematicheskoe modelirovanie v mashinostroenii (Mathematical modelling in mechanical engineering), Novosibirsk Electric Technical Institute (NETI), Novosibirsk, 1990. 83 p. 5. Solonin I.S. Matematicheskaja statistika v tehnologii mashinostroenija (Mathematical Statistics in Mechanical Engineering). Moscow, Mashinostroenie, 1972. 216 p. 6. Mitropol’skiy A.K. Tehnika statisticheskih vychisleniy (Technique of static calculations). Moskow: Nauka, 1971. 576 p. 7. Bahvalov N.S . Chislennyemetody [T.1] (Numerical Methods. Vol.1).Moscow,Nauka, 1975. 631 p. 8. Ptitsyn S.V., ChesovYu.S. Prognozirovanie tehnicheskih harakteristik metallorezhushhih stankov (Technical characteristicsprediction of metal-cutting machines), Novosibirsk, NSTU, 1998. 52 p.